Solana (SOL) price rally could fizzle out due to weak fundamentals


Solana’s (SOL) latest 250% rally to $25 has shocked many buyers within the crypto market. On the identical time, merchants who had eyes on the destructive funding charge for SOL within the futures market might have anticipated the bullish transfer forward of others.

It’s as a result of extreme destructive funding charges, just like the one in Solana displayed beneath, implies that almost all of merchants are on the quick facet, offering a chance for patrons to run their stops.

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SOL funding charge for perpetual swaps. Supply: Coinglass

Whatever the cause behind the value enhance, if sufficient patrons are inquisitive about becoming a member of the bullish transfer, it may flip right into a medium-to-long-term bullish pattern. Nonetheless, Solana’s elementary and market evaluation exhibits weak point, which can extra probably trigger a steep correction within the altcoin.

Solana finds a worthy competitor in NFT house

Solana ranks second when it comes to NFT buying and selling throughout blockchain platforms. Ethereum instructions the lion’s share of the entire NFT buying and selling quantity with an 81.6% share. Solana has the second greatest pie with an 11.6% share, in line with data from Delphi Digital.

Nonetheless, the ecosystem obtained a setback when two of the most important initiatives in DeGods and y00ts determined to shift away from Solana. The departure of top-performing initiatives units a nasty precedent for product builders trying to launch NFTs. Up to now, Ethereum stays the go-to alternative for giant manufacturers and group initiatives.

Share of NFT buying and selling quantity by blockchains from Dec. 4 to Jan. 4. Supply: Delphi Digital

Furthermore, Polygon has began gaining traction after forging key partnerships with manufacturers like Reddit, Starbucks, and Meta. DeGods additionally selected Polygon over Solana after receiving a $3 million grant from Polygon Labs. Polygon’s enterprise growth group has been acknowledged as the very best in enterprise.

The utilization knowledge from Nansen for Polygon and Solana confirms the diversion the place the variety of lively customers on Polygon is spiking whereas Solana’s utilization has been in a downtrend since mid-2022.

NFT merchants per week on Polygon (left) and Solana (proper). Supply: Nansen

Solana has efficiency and belief points

Solana’s community turned unpopular final 12 months due to frequent and lengthy network outages and hacks. There have been greater than 5 outages in 2022 alone. Bounce Crypto, a market-making fund, has proposed an answer to the issue by growing a backup validator client, Firedancer. Its real-world efficiency is but to be examined.

The whole community charges metric is among the strongest indicators for analyzing exercise throughout a platform. Solana’s statistics from token terminal showcase a downward pattern within the community exercise, with weekly lively customers declining every quarter since 2022.

Complete gasoline spent on Solana. Supply: token terminal

In addition to downtime, the ecosystem additionally misplaced belief amongst customers on account of massive hacks. The $312 million Wormhole bridge hack is among the largest crypto exploits of 2022. There was additionally an incident the place $8 million SOL was drained from customers’ wallets. 

The ultimate blow to belief got here after FTX collapsed as a result of FTX-Alameda was the most important entity backing the Solana ecosystem. The defunct enterprise capitalist agency and trade holds round 58 million SOL tokens, or 10.7% of Solana’s complete provide. Of those, 6.7 million can be unlocked yearly till 2025, adopted by 5 million SOL till 2028. These holdings add a big sell-off threat.

FTX’s collapse additionally took down Serum, the main liquidity supply for brand new DeFi purposes. On this regard, the failure of the most important decentralized trade, Mango Markets, additionally drove out many DeFi customers.

Complete locked worth in Solana’s DeFi ecosystem. Supply: DefiLlama

Bearish divergence noticed in SOL/USD chart

Possibly, the latest SOL value surge from $10 to $25 was the results of a short-squeeze in the futures market. The Shifting Common Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator exhibits a bearish divergence within the day by day SOL/USD chart. The Relative Power Index (RSI) which measures the market’s momentum additionally moved to oversold territory, elevating the potential of additional correction.

SOL/USD 1-day value chart. Supply: TradingView

There’s an opportunity that the current bullish momentum will proceed until it meets the resistance at $33, which is the breakdown space from the FTX collapse and the place the 50-day Exponential Shifting Common presently sits.

The long-to-short ratio sooner or later market nonetheless exhibits a slight bearish inclination of 51.5% in shorts versus 48.5% in longs. This can probably present gasoline for the final leg up in SOL/USD.

Lengthy to quick ratio for SOL futures. Supply: Coinglass

Conversely, a breakout above $33 degree could cause a surge towards $135. Except the Solana basis establishes main partnerships like Polygon, or present improved utilization knowledge, the above appears extremely unlikely.